PSA 1–10 Risk Engine1.0.2 System
Card Grading ROI & Risk Solver
Calculate exact probability-weighted returns across all 10 grades, deduct turnaround service fees, and identify the break-even grade floor before sending cards to grading.
Grading Decision
Grade with Caution
Net EV: +$113.69
Card & Service Configuration
Raw Ungraded Card Value$350.00
Card Batch Quantity1 card(s)
Break-Even Grade
Grade 8+
Required for Profit
Profit Probability
59%
Loss Risk: 41%
Graded Market Value Curve by Grade ($)
Ungraded Baseline: $350.00Grade 1–10 Empirical Distribution Matrix
Min. Viable Price: $41| Grade | Pull Odds | Multiplier | Graded Value | Net Profit/Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grade 1 (Poor / Damaged) | 1% | 0.25x | $87.50 | -$277.50 |
| Grade 2 (Fair) | 2% | 0.38x | $133.00 | -$232.00 |
| Grade 3 (Good) | 3% | 0.48x | $168.00 | -$197.00 |
| Grade 4 (Very Good - VG) | 4% | 0.58x | $203.00 | -$162.00 |
| Grade 5 (Excellent - EX) | 5% | 0.72x | $252.00 | -$113.00 |
| Grade 6 (EX-Mint) | 8% | 0.88x | $308.00 | -$57.00 |
| Grade 7 (Near Mint - NM) | 18% | 1.02x | $357.00 | -$8.00 |
| Grade 8 (NM-Mint) | 30% | 1.25x | $437.50 | +$72.50 |
| Grade 9 (Mint) | 20% | 1.70x | $595.00 | +$230.00 |
| Grade 10 (Gem Mint) | 9% | 3.50x | $1225.00 | +$860.00 |
PSA Strategy Breakdown:Moderate upside (+31.1% ROI). Break-even requires at least Grade 8. Only submit if you have sufficient cash reserve to absorb a potential Grade 4-6 loss.