Ultimate Team Pack Odds & Expected Value (EV) Calculator
Simulate empirical drop probabilities, calculate expected coin returns, and identify mathematical coin traps in the Store.
Card Tier Drop Probabilities
Verified Client WeightsThe EA Sports pack algorithm utilizes non-linear drop attenuation. Below is the probability of pulling at least one card in each rating tier.
Economic Recommendation
Statistically Unfavorable: Avoid purchasing with hard coins. You lose on average -68% of your coin capital.
Related Squad Building & Economy Planners
Recycle your high-rated pack duplicates into top Icon and Player of the Month SBCs.
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Player Database Explorer →Check live market price ranges and meta PlayStyles for all potential walkouts.
Frequently Asked Questions — Pack Probabilities & Discard Economics
Are Store Packs worth opening with hard coins in FC 27?
Statistically no. Across all 50k, 100k, and 125k Store packs, the probability-weighted Expected Value (EV) averages 45% to 65% of the initial coin purchase price, resulting in an immediate average capital loss of 35% to 55% per pack.
What is the Discard Value Floor?
The Discard Value Floor is the guaranteed minimum coin return if every single card pulled is immediately quick-sold at EA's base discard table. For example, a 24-rare gold card pack has an absolute minimum floor of ~15,600 coins (~650 coins per rare card).
Why do repeatable upgrade SBCs (like 84+ x10) have higher EV than Store packs?
Upgrade SBCs have zero store coin cost and guarantee high minimum rating floors (84+), yielding massive fodder recycling efficiency that can be channeled into guaranteed Player SBCs.