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Path of Exile 2 — PoE2 HubPatch 0.5.4 Verified
Instant Crafting Probability Engine

Crafting Probability & Orb Budget Estimator

Calculate exact geometric probability distributions, expected attempt counts, and currency budgets in Chaos and Exalted Orbs for hitting specific Tier 1 item affixes in Path of Exile 2.

Average Cost

2,498 Chaos

~5551 Attempts Avg
90% Confidence Cost

5,751 Chaos

12780 Attempts P90
Single Roll Odds

0.0180%

Per Attempt
Target Affixes

2 Mods

Selected

Base Item & Crafting Method

Select Target Tier 1 Affixes

2 / 4 Selected
+1 to All Skill Gems (Prefix)

Weight: 65 / 22,000 (Prefix)

+% Physical Damage T1 (Prefix)

Weight: 120 / 22,000 (Prefix)

Adds # to # Physical Damage T1 (Prefix)

Weight: 250 / 22,000 (Prefix)

+# to Maximum Life T1 (Prefix)

Weight: 450 / 22,000 (Prefix)

+# to Maximum Energy Shield T1 (Prefix)

Weight: 350 / 22,000 (Prefix)

+% Attack Speed / Cast Speed T1 (Suffix)

Weight: 200 / 24,000 (Suffix)

+% Global Critical Strike Multiplier T1 (Suffix)

Weight: 180 / 24,000 (Suffix)

+% Fire / Cold / Lightning Resistance T1 (Suffix)

Weight: 500 / 24,000 (Suffix)

+% Chaos Resistance T1 (Suffix)

Weight: 150 / 24,000 (Suffix)

+# to Spirit (Sceptre Exclusive) T1 (Suffix)

Weight: 100 / 18,000 (Suffix)

Expected Currency Budget

Required Currency Materials
Orb of Transmutation~5,551x
Orb of Augmentation~11,102x
Regal Orb~1,110x
Confidence Percentiles
50% (Average)

2498 Chaos

5551 Rolls
90% Safety

5751 Chaos

12780 Rolls
99% Guaranteed

11502 Chaos

25559 Rolls
Craft vs Buy Verdict

High Variance Gamble (~2498 Chaos avg): For 2 combined T1 mods, direct market purchase or Trade Site searching is generally more cost-efficient than raw rolling unless crafting on a Mirror-tier item base.